Efficient Markets vs. Excess Volatility Financial Markets (ECON 252) -Year 2008 Several theories in finance relate to stock price analysis and prediction. The efficient markets hypothesis states that stock prices for publicly-traded companies reflect all available information. Prices adjust to new information instantaneously, so it is impossible to "beat the market." Furthermore, the random walk theory asserts that changes in stock prices arise only from unanticipated new information, and so it is impossible to predict the direction of stock prices. Using statistical tools, we can attempt to test the hypotheses and to predict future stock prices. These tests show that efficient markets theory is a half-truth: it is difficult but not impossible for some people to beat the market. 00:00 - Chapter 1. Last Thoughts on Insurance and Catastrophe Bonds 06:28 - Chapter 2. Information Access and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis 20:00 - Chapter 3. Varying Degrees of Efficient Markets and No Dividends: The Case of First Federal Financial 41:44 - Chapter 4. The Random Walk Theory 51:30 - Chapter 5. The First Order Auto-regressive Model 56:59 - Chapter 6. Challenges in Forecasting the Market Complete course materials are available at the Open Yale Courses website: http://open.yale.edu/courses This course was recorded in Spring 2008.
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Tags: AR-1 efficient markets hypothesis first order auto-regressive model random walk theory stock market prices volatility
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Lec 1-Year 2008 Finance and Insurance as Powerful Forces in Our
Lec 2 -Year 2008 - The Universal Principle of Risk Management: Pooling
Lec 3 -Year 2008 - Technology and Invention in Finance
Lec 4 -Year 2008 - Portfolio Diversification and Supporting Financial
Lec 5 -Year 2008 - Insurance: The Archetypal Risk Management
Lec 7 -Year 2008 - Behavioral Finance: The Role of Psychology
Lec 8 -Year 2008 - Human Foibles, Fraud, Manipulation, and Regulation
Lec 9 -Year 2008 - Guest Lecture by David Swensen
Lec 10 -Year 2008 - Debt Markets: Term Structure
Lec 12 -Year 2008 - Real Estate Finance and its Vulnerability to Crisis
Lec 13 -Year 2008 - Banking: Successes and Failures
Lec 14 -Year 2008 - Guest Lecture by Andrew Redleaf
Lec 15 -Year 2008 - Guest Lecture by Carl Icahn
Lec 16 -Year 2008 - The Evolution and Perfection of Monetary Policy
Lec 17 -Year 2008 - Investment Banking and Secondary Markets
Lec 18 -Year 2008 - Professional Money Managers and Their Influence
Lec 19 -Year 2008 - Brokerage, ECNs, etc.
Lec 20 -Year 2008 - Guest Lecture by Stephen Schwarzman
Lec 21 -Year 2008 - Forwards and Futures
Lec 22 -Year 2008 - Stock Index, Oil and Other Futures Markets
Lec 23 -Year 2008 - Options Markets
Lec 24 -Year 2008 - Making It Work for Real People: The Democratization
Lec 25 -Year 2008 - Learning from and Responding to Financial Crisis I
Lec 26 -Year 2008 Learning from and Responding to Financial Crisis II